On Tuesday, the Center for the Study of American Democracy and Associate Professor of Political Science Jacqueline McAllister co-hosted Andrew P. Miller, former deputy assistant secretary of state for Israeli-Palestinian affairs, for a conversation titled “U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East.”
The conversation offered a focused analysis of the developments that have shaped U.S. foreign policy in recent years. McAllister opened directly by asking Miller what factors led to the current war in Iran. Miller pointed primarily to President Donald Trump’s 2018 decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement between the United States and Iran that exchanged tight restrictions on nuclear development in Iran for trade sanctions relief. “When I say withdrawal unilaterally, that’s a euphemism. We broke the deal. The United States broke the deal in bad faith,” Miller said. According to Miller, the withdrawal ruptured trust between the two nations in a way that was very difficult to mend. “The way in which the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement was designed to make it harder for the Biden administration to negotiate a return to that agreement,” Miller said.
Further eroding trust between Iran and the U.S., Miller noted, was the U.S.’s undermining of negotiations in surprise military attacks: “The last two times the United States attacked Iran, it was the middle of negotiations. … The Trump administration chose, both times, to attack, and to use negotiations as cover for an attack.”
Miller also discussed the recent shifts in U.S. relations with Israel. He noted that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked multiple U.S. administrators for assistance in forcing regime change in Iran throughout his many years in office. Miller also argued that it is notable that Trump agreed to intervene in Iran now despite originally refusing during his first presidential term. Miller pointed to two main factors for this change: Iran’s weakened defenses and Trump’s use of military force at low perceived cost during his second term. Miller criticized both the Trump and Biden administrations for not pushing back against Netanyahu enough to protect U.S. interests. “Netanyahu drew from his experiences with Biden, with Trump, that ultimately the Americans he was dealing with would come around to his position. … The Biden administration believed that the best way to neutralize [Netanyahu] was to hold him tight. And my philosophy was, if there’s evidence to support that, fine, but all of the evidence seemed to indicate the contrary,” he said. Miller expressed that the kind of territorial advancements Israel is pursuing now would not have been tolerated under previous Israeli administrations.
As for the future of the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Miller offered both warnings and possibilities for a peaceful resolution. He emphasized the immense damage to trust between Iran and the U.S., but noted the opportunity for resolution in negotiations hosted by Pakistan, a country both Iran and the U.S. are comfortable with. He stressed the importance of a long-lasting solution for both nations.
Miller also warned of a potential ground invasion of mainland Iran or its islands, targeting of energy and desalination infrastructure that would lead to “humanitarian catastrophe.” McAllister noted that the humanitarian angle of the conversation was one she was particularly interested in. “Civilians tend to bear the brunt of suffering in these situations, and it’s not just American lives and lives in the regions, but Iranians are suffering in immense, horrific ways that I don’t think many of us can ever begin to understand,” she said.
In an interview with the Collegian, McAllister expressed her appreciation for Miller’s detailed explanations. “You kind of hear things and read things in the newspaper, but hearing directly from Andy [Miller] about kind of how much power has been concentrated with the hands of JD Vance and [Steve] Witkoff and [Jared] Kushner to handle these immensely complicated portfolios is, frankly, just mind-boggling,” she said.
Reflecting on the Kenyon community’s response to Tuesday’s lecture, McAllister added, “Everybody had really excellent questions yesterday, and it was a really excellent turnout, and both of those things make me so incredibly happy, because they give me hope. People do care. They are showing up. They’re trying to make sense of and grapple with and figure out a path forward for these incredibly complicated, hard issues, and just that we’re working through all that together as a community, I find to be absolutely wonderful.